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CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR E POPULATION MOVEMENT PREDICTION FOR THE INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO RESPONSE PREPAREDNESS (IARP) PROGRAMME

Document Release Date : 13th May 2020

Last Date for Receipt of proposals : 27th May 2020

Time : 11:00 Hrs.

Tender Number : PRF06492

Download the full document here; https://www.redcross.or.ke/Tenders

Submission Method : Email to [email protected]

Tender Opening Venue and Time : KENYA RED CROSS SOCIETY

HEADQUARTERS BOARDROOM: TIME: 1200 HRS

SECTION 1 – REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS

1.1 Introduction The Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) is the largest humanitarian relief organization created in 1965 through an Act of parliament, cap 256 of the Laws of Kenya. Its vision is to be the most effective, most trusted and self-sustaining humanitarian organization in Kenya. The KRCS Mission is to work with vigor and compassion through our networks and with communities to prevent and alleviate human suffering and save lives of the most vulnerable. KRCS is auxiliary to both National and County Governments in disaster preparedness and response. This Request for Proposals (RFP) document is intended identify a consultancy firm or a team of consultants who can support with E population movement prediction for the Innovative Approaches to Response Preparedness (IARP) Programme. This document constitutes the formal Request for Proposals (RFP) for consultancy, it is being availed on the Kenya Red Cross Society and ReliefWeb websites basis to bidders interested in submitting a bid. The consultancy will be awarded to a company, institution or a team of consultants who are able to fulfil the requirements as per the purpose, scope of work and qualifications sought. Bids will be accepted from either local and international companies, institutions or team of consultants.

1.2 Context: Forecast based Finance and the Innovative Approaches to Response Preparedness (IARP) Programme Worldwide, extreme events aggravated by climate change lead to an increase in disasters and suffering. The impact of these events could be reduced and sometimes avoided if plans and funding were in place to take well-targeted, cost-efficient and early action based on climate and weather forecasts. The programme therefore builds capacity in Forecast-based Financing (FbF), supported by Data Preparedness and Cash Transfer Programming (CTP) in early action, through systems development, piloting and iteration. The programme builds the capacities of Ethiopian Red Cross Society (ERCS), Kenyan Red Cross Society (KRCS) and Uganda Red Cross Society (URCS) in the three innovative approaches to provide early action that reduces risks of people at risk of a forecasted disaster, in particular the most vulnerable, including floating populations. The three National Societies will implement the programme together with the Netherlands Red Cross (NLRC, lead) in partnership with the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (Climate Centre), 510 Data Initiative (510), the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), and British Red Cross (BRC), and in close collaboration with various stakeholders.

1.3 FbF for population movement Although the IARP programme is designed to address climate risk, the programme will also explore FbF for population movement. Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda experience regular population movement due to several reasons. This has resulted in refugee camps, especially across borders, that are present for already considerable times to accommodate these fluxes of people as well as in IDP camps, that are in for example in Kenya officially not allowed by the government, but nevertheless existing. A specific form of internal displacement is linked to pastoralist movements. This results in humanitarian needs in addition to those that are the result of natural hazards. If population movement could be predicted with a sufficiently long lead time, early action can be taken in principle. Both the programme consortium and the Ikea Foundation recognized the complexity of FbF for population movement, more complex than FbF for natural hazards, and therefore agreed to do a feasibility study (activity and deliverable 1.E.1.11 Feasibility study on FbF for population movement) first.

1.4 Predicting population movement Several data sources have been used to try to predict population movement. Mobile operator has turned out to be the best data to do so and has been used to detect crisis-induced internal movements, movements that deviate from the normal. Travel survey data and satellite data are not good enough. There are spatial covariates such as roads, population density distribution, night time lights, census data that can add value. Mobile operator data has biases, but still the best by seeing which phones have left their normal location. People move to where they have social connections.

1.5 Desired Partner Profile Given the prominence of mobile operator data and Call Detail Records (CDR) in analyzing and potentially predicting population movement, 510 seeks a partner organization with experience of acquiring and analyzing mobile operator data. A desirable organization would be one which has a proven track record of working with international organizations, analyzing Mobile Network Operator (MNO)/CDR records in the context of population movement around natural disasters or other such shocks. Also desirable would be pre-existing relationships with MNO in a number of contexts which could yield access to CDR or similar datasets. This TOR aims to shape a collaboration between 510 global (NLRC) and such a partner, with support from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate center, to execute this feasibility study.

1.6 Objectives and Scope It is expected that 510 global will benefit from the potential partners technical expertise, experience in collaborations with mobile operators as well as existing analysis/CDR from other MNOs. The project partner will gain access and resources to develop and test the results of the collaboration within the IARP project, as well as results from any relevant project activities within IARP (where possible). The partner may also benefit from access to the IARP consortium and their in-country partners. This activity is expected to occur in Kenya, with the potential for further expansion into Uganda then Ethiopia if time and resources allow. The to-be developed methodology and predictive models should also be usable for other countries. A workflow explaining how the methodology and predictive model can be adapted to targeted countries when the necessary data becomes available.

1.7 Deliverables The following deliverables will be expected from this collaboration: Objective Activities Deliverables Led by Assess the feasibility of predicting population movement both pre- and post-disaster in multiple contexts: • In the IARP countries if CDR data becomes available • In other countries than the IARP countries (to have a replicable approach) ● Create an overview of data that is available on predictors, most notably the CDR data, historical anonymized or aggregated CDR data, preferably over a time period before and after the disaster event as well as other data on population mobility + Data on other drivers such as vulnerability, exposure. ● Create an overview of data that is available on the predictand, the movement of people (IDPs, refugees, other “normal” movement etc). Database of predictors and predictands Co-created by both 510 and partner.

Partner will provide in depth insight into what data they have received from MNOs in the past and how they have used it. ● Develop a statistical/machine learning model to predict displacements and early returns based on CDR and other potential data sources Machine learning model code Performance matrix Co-created by both 510 and partner.

● Analysis of how the machine learning model can be used, benchmark also against currently already available models and baselines. Recommendations on the opportunities and limitations of the predictive model Co-created by both 510 and partner. ● Test how prediction accuracy varies for different lead times (for past disaster use data available at D-x to predict movements, vary x) Accuracy – lead time table Partner ● Test generalizability/replicability of model architecture across countries, and type of disaster Generic and context-specific model architecture Partner ● Build methods to both obtain predictions and understand mechanisms and drivers of displacement and returns (model interpretability) Model interpretability method Partner ● Discuss with key stakeholders how the model(s) can be operationalized in terms of Early Action Protocols for FbF. Workshop 510 and National Societies, support by partner

Shape a MoU with the mobile operators in Kenya and Uganda ● Design an iterative workflow with Mobile Network Operator in case direct access to CDRs is not possible Workflow Partner ● Characterize the CDR data set required for modeling in case a Mobile Network Operator is willing to share. Requirements Partner ● Kenya: 510 global (NLRC) could explore the ongoing collaboration between the IARP project consortium, including the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) and their existing relationship with Safaricom. CDR data for Kenya Partner, KRCS and 510, exact role division to be discussed ● Uganda: has to be checked still which kind of contacts are already in place. CDR data for Uganda Partner, Uganda Red Cross and 510, exact role division to be discussed ● If mobile operator data from Uganda and/or Kenya becomes available use this for the approach as developed under the first objective. Prediction model for Uganda and Kenya Co-created by both 510 and partner.

Overall documentation ● Document the research findings Scientific paper Technical manual/guidelines Co-created by both 510 and partner.

1.8 Evaluation criteria Organisation and Methodology 45 Understanding of ToR and the aim of the deliverables to be provided
Overall methodological approach, quality control approach, appropriate mix of tools and estimate of difficulties and challenges
Technical added value, backstopping and role of the involved members of the consortium
Organization of tasks including timetable
Expertise of the proposed team 30 Price 25

1.9 Data Responsibility All shared data will be treated responsibly and in line with both parties’ respective protection standards. 510’s policy see here: https://www.510.global/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/510_Data_Responsibilit… Contact persons from 510 ● Marc van den Homberg, scientific lead 510 [email protected] ● Ted Bolton, data preparedness delegate 510 in Kenya [email protected] 2.0 Eligibility of the Tenderer

  1. The Tenderer shall notify the Client, as soon as practicable, of any change in the information submitted, including changes in the composition of the Tenderer or the legal status and place of establishment, on grounds for exclusion, potential conflicts of interest, economic and financial situation, and technical capability/capacity of the Tenderer or its members. Any change in the composition of the Tenderer will at the discretion of the Client lead to disqualification of the Tenderer from participation in the Tender and award of contract.
  2. If the Tenderer is a joint venture, consortium or other unincorporated grouping of two or more entities (here called a Joint Venture) the following shall apply: (i) The tender shall be signed by all members of the joint venture. (ii) The members shall attach to the tender a letter of intent including
  3. a statement that the members of the joint venture will undertake, jointly and severally, the obligations of the joint venture under the contract if awarded,
  4. a statement that members of the joint venture appoints and authorize the lead member with authority to bind the joint venture, and to act on its behalf in all matters in connection with or arising out of this Agreement,
  5. a statement that the composition or constitution of the joint venture shall not be altered without prior written consent by the Contracting Authority
  6. The members shall establish a common methodology
  7. Any legal entity may only submit one tender.
  8. Tenderers shall not be eligible for the assignment if this would conflict with their prior or current obligations to other Clients, or may place them in a position of not being able to carry out the assignment in the best interest of the Client. Tenderers may be disqualified from tendering and entering into an Agreement under the circumstances set forth below:

(i) Conflict between consulting activities and supply of goods or carrying out works or other services for the component/project. (ii) Conflict with consulting assignments related to the component/project. (iii) Conflict stemming from relationship with the Client’s or the Recipient’s staff.

  1. Tenderers shall not derive a competitive advantage from having provided consulting services related to the assignment in question. To that end, the Client shall provide to all Tenderers all available information that would in that respect give a Tenderer a competitive advantage over the other Tenderers.
  2. If a Tenderer proposes a sub-consultant, a joint letter with sufficient details of the arrangement must be included in the Tender. If, in the opinion of the Client, the selection of sub-consultants locally or within specific fields of expertise is limited, the Client may oppose exclusive agreements with local sub-consultants, be they organizations or individuals (agreements that prohibit the sub-consultant from entering into agreements with other Tenderers).

1.1.1. The overall summary information regarding the IARP is given in section 1.2 –Aims and Objectives. The bidder shall include in their offer any additional services or items considered necessary for the successful completion of the project

1.1.2. Proposals from bidders should be submitted in two distinct parts, namely technical proposal and financial proposal and these should be in two separate folders both of which should then be sent to [email protected] clearly marked “Tender No. PRF06492 – Consultancy services for E Population Movement prediction for the innovative approaches to response preparedness (IARP) Program”. Proposals received after the deadline will be rejected. OPENING DATE 27th May 2020 at 12:00 noon. We will share the zoom login details to all consultants who express their intent to participate in this tender. Kindly indicate the title of the project on the email subject i.e. “Tender No. PRF06492 – Consultancy services for E Population Movement prediction for the innovative approaches to response preparedness (IARP) Program”.

1.1.3. KRCS reserves the right to accept or to reject any bid, and to annul the bidding process and reject all bids at any time prior to the award of the contract, without thereby incurring any liability to any Bidder or any obligation to inform the Bidder of the grounds for its action.

1.1.4. Cost of bidding The Bidder shall bear all costs associated with the preparation and submission of its bid, and the Organization will in no case be responsible or liable for those costs, regardless of the conduct or outcome of the bidding process.

1.1.5. Clarification of Bidding Document All correspondence related to the contract shall be made in English. Any clarification sought by the bidder in respect of the consultancy shall be addressed at least five (5) days before the deadline for submission of bids, in writing to the Administration Coordinator. The queries and replies thereto shall then be circulated to all other prospective bidders (without divulging the name of the bidder raising the queries) in the form of an addendum, which shall be acknowledged in writing by the prospective bidders. Enquiries for clarifications should be sent by e-mail to [email protected]

1.1.6. Amendment of Bidding Document At any time prior to the deadline for submission of bids, KRCS, for any reason, whether at its own initiative or in response to a clarification requested by a prospective Bidder, may modify the bidding documents by amendment. All prospective Bidders that have received the bidding documents will be notified of the amendment in writing, and it will be binding on them. It is therefore important that bidders give the correct details in the format given on page 1at the time of collecting/receiving the bid document. To allow prospective Bidders reasonable time to take any amendments into account in preparing their bids, KRCS may at its sole discretion extend the deadline for the submission of bids based on the nature of the amendments.

1.1.7. Deadline for Submission of Bids Bids sent by mail should reach [email protected] on or before 27th of May 2020 at 11:00 am. Bids received after the above-specified date and time shall not be considered. Any bid received by KRCS after this deadline will be rejected. Bidders should provide a technical and financial proposal in two separate folders clearly Marked “Technical Proposal” and “Financial Proposal” both of which should then be sent to [email protected] with the subject reading ““Tender No. PRF06492 – Consultancy services for E Population Movement prediction for the innovative approaches to response preparedness (IARP) Program”. The Proposal should be addressed as indicated above to reach the under signed by 27th May 2020 at 11.00 a.m. for the tender to be opened at 12.00 noon: Any bid received by KRCS after this deadline will be rejected.

1.1.1. Cost Structure and non-escalation The bidder shall, in their offer (Financial Proposal), detail the proposed costs as per the template provided above. No price escalation under this contract shall be allowed. KRCS shall not compensate any bidder for costs incurred in the preparation and submission of this RFP, and in any subsequent pre-contract process.

1.1.2. Taxes and Incidental Costs The prices and rates in the financial offer will be deemed to be inclusive of all taxes and any other incidental costs.

1.1.3. Responsiveness of Proposals The responsiveness of the proposals to the requirements of this RFP will be determined. A responsive proposal is deemed to contain all documents or information specifically called for in this RFP document. A bid determined not responsive will be rejected by the Organization and may not subsequently be made responsive by the Bidder by correction of the non-conforming item(s).

1.1.4. Currency for Pricing of Tender All bids in response to this RFP should be expressed in Kenya Shillings. Expressions in other currencies shall not be permitted.

1.1.5. Correction of Errors.

Bids determined to be substantially responsive will be checked by KRCS for any arithmetical errors. Errors will be corrected by KRCS as below: a. where there is a discrepancy between the amounts in figures and in words, the amount in words will govern, and b. where there is a discrepancy between the unit rate and the line total resulting from multiplying the unit rate by the quantity, the unit rate as quoted will govern. The price amount stated in the Bid will be adjusted by KRCS in accordance with the above procedure for the correction of errors.

1.1.6. Evaluation and Comparison of Bids Technical proposals will be evaluated prior to the evaluation of the financial bids. Financial bids of firms whose technical proposals are found to be non-qualifying in whatever respect may be returned unopened.

1.1.7. Confidentiality The Bidder shall treat the existence and contents of this RFP, and all information made available in relation to this RFP, as confidential and shall only use the same for the purpose for which it was provided. The Bidder shall not publish or disclose the same or any particulars thereof to any third party without the written permission of KRCS, unless it is to Bidder’s Contractors for assistance in preparation of this Tender. In any case, the same confidentiality must be entered into between Bidder and his Contractors.

1.1.8. Corrupt or Fraudulent Practices KRCS requires that tenderers observe the highest standard of ethics during the procurement process and execution of contracts. A tenderer shall sign a declaration that he has not and will not be involved in corrupt or fraudulent practices. KRCS will reject a proposal for award if it determines that the tenderer recommended for award has engaged in corrupt or fraudulent practices in competing for the contract in question Further a tenderer who is found to have indulged in corrupt or fraudulent practices risks being debarred from participating please report any malpractices to [email protected]

How to apply

Deadline for Submission of Bids

Bids sent by mail should reach [email protected] on or before 27th of May 2020 at 11:00 am. Bids received after the above-specified date and time shall not be considered.

Any bid received by KRCS after this deadline will be rejected.

Bidders should provide a technical and financial proposal in two separate folders clearly Marked “Technical Proposal” and “Financial Proposal” both of which should then be sent to [email protected] with the subject reading “Tender No. PRF06492 – Consultancy services for E Population Movement prediction for the innovative approaches to response preparedness (IARP) Program”.

The Proposal should be addressed as indicated above to reach the under signed by 27th May 2020 at 11.00 a.m. for the tender to be opened at 12.00 noon:

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